The Middle East Peace and Security Forum and Atlantic Council convened a workshop titled Alternative (Dis)order: Are Armed Groups in the Middle East Eclipsing the Nation State? on the sidelines of the Middle East Peace and Security Forum 2024 at the American University of Kurdistan. The workshop brought together decision-makers in Kurdistan, Iraq, international and regional scholars, analysts and officials to discuss the influence and reach of armed groups, the interplay between legitimacy and international law, the rapidly expanding model of mercenary warfare and the practice of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in a post-Westphalian context. We found that there are risks to reflexively adopting state-based assumptions about the Middle East. Across the region, non-state armed groups are consolidating their influence, particularly by infiltrating and appropriating key segments of the economy. Meanwhile, the state is in retreat. Armed groups have taken over many traditionally state-based functions, including the delivery of essential services to millions of civilians.

Two developing trends in warfare — the proliferation of cheap drone technology and the growing use of mercenaries — are shaping the future of armed groups in the region and intensifying the accountability crisis. There must be a concerted effort to close gaps in the existing accountability architecture, focus on transnational networks, combat trauma, accommodate non-state actors within Security Sector Reform (SSR) practices, and recognize the proliferation of mercenaries as a central feature of modern warfare.